How Romania’s political elite is sabotaging itself, clearing the way for populist candidate Călin Georgescu—without realizing it

Encouraged by his position as the coalition’s power broker, UDMR leader Kelemen Hunor (leader of the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania) has dominated the political discourse in recent days with a flurry of interviews, opinions, and political analysis, as if he weren’t actually part of the government. In his latest media appearance, Kelemen Hunor concluded that “the entire Romanian society is campaigning for free on behalf of Călin Georgescu,” referring to the excessive discussion around the candidate who led the polls in the annulled November elections. His observation is accurate—but incomplete.

It’s not just Romanian society that is working for free on behalf of Georgescu, but also the PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition, of which Kelemen Hunor is a distinguished member. Ever since Crin Antonescu (former leader of the National Liberal Party, PNL) was designated as the coalition’s sole candidate, the three ruling parties have only amplified public frustration. For many voters, Antonescu is simply an additional reason to support Georgescu. A politician returning to the scene after ten years of political inactivity, Antonescu serves as living proof that Romania’s major parties have learned little from the overwhelming pro-Georgescu vote on November 24.

Kelemen Hunor not only failed to voice any reservations about Antonescu’s candidacy but also seems convinced that he is the best choice—the candidate capable of defeating Georgescu in the second round. Hunor also provided another intriguing detail: the person who pushed hardest for Antonescu’s nomination was not a PNL member but rather Marcel Ciolacu, leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Romania’s prime minister. “I am convinced that Marcel Ciolacu, the president of PSD, genuinely supports Antonescu’s candidacy. He insisted that Antonescu be included in the coalition agreement, and since then, he has backed him at every turn,” Hunor said in a Tuesday evening interview with TVR Info (Romania’s public television news channel).

Up until yesterday, there was still a faint hope that someone else—perhaps Ilie Bolojan (prominent PNL politician and president of the Bihor County Council)—might emerge as the coalition’s candidate. That hope was dashed when PSD unanimously voted to support Antonescu during its National Political Council meeting and scheduled an Extraordinary Congress on February 2 for his final confirmation. According to G4Media.ro sources, PSD is not currently considering any alternative candidate. Despite his social media outreach, Marcel Ciolacu appears to have exhausted his political momentum.

Even though Bolojan is, at this point, the only rational alternative, he shows no interest in running for president. On the contrary, his recently announced plans to lay off Parliament staffers have made him unpopular within both PSD and PNL. Party loyalists, fearing for their positions, are uneasy about Bolojan’s reformist approach. While ordinary voters may support cutting public spending and eliminating political sinecures, political campaigns rely on party activists, whose backing is essential. Bolojan’s reformist drive makes him an outcast within the very coalition that would need to support his candidacy. How could he run when his own party colleagues would likely sabotage him?

Iohannis and the Self-Sabotage of the Establishment

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has also been working, albeit unintentionally, to boost Călin Georgescu. A long series of catastrophic political decisions has left Romania in a position where voters are willing to choose almost anything over the dismal options presented by PNL and PSD in November. Nicolae Ciucă (PNL leader and former prime minister) and Marcel Ciolacu ran against each other with Iohannis’s blessing—a strategic and tactical mistake acknowledged even by Kelemen Hunor.

Iohannis continued making errors even after the election annulment—a historically unprecedented decision that triggered widespread frustration and protests. The government formed after the Constitutional Court’s controversial ruling remains led by Marcel Ciolacu, despite his being harshly punished at the ballot box. PSD recorded its worst parliamentary election result in history and, for the first time since the fall of communism, failed to advance a candidate to the second round of presidential elections.

The Ciolacu II government is repeating all the mistakes that led to November’s anti-establishment vote. PNL and PSD have filled their ministries with the same old faces—bureaucrats loyal to the system, ready to snap to attention at the command of their superiors, whether from the party or elsewhere. This systematic recycling of political mediocrity has fueled voter backlash against traditional parties. Many educated voters who backed Georgescu in the first round viewed their vote primarily as a punishment for the political elite—a rejection of the arrogance and indifference of those who have ruled Romania in recent years.

At this point, it’s unclear whether Georgescu will remain in the race or be disqualified by another ruling from the Constitutional Court, similar to what happened with Diana Șoșoacă (controversial far-right senator and former presidential candidate). If Georgescu stays in the race, current polling suggests he is almost guaranteed to make it to the second round. If he is removed, who will inherit the so-called sovereignist (nationalist-populist) vote? George Simion, leader of AUR (far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians)? The same man whom Marcel Ciolacu allegedly helped with votes in hopes of facing him in the second round?

If Georgescu isn’t eliminated in the early stages, whom will he face in the final showdown? Will voters be forced to choose between him and Crin Antonescu? A bleak prospect.

The Lack of Viable Alternatives

Former prime minister Victor Ponta has almost no chance of running as PSD’s candidate. No matter how much his backers in Serbia may wish to see him at Cotroceni (Romania’s presidential palace), without a coalition behind him, he won’t make it to the second round. Given the current political climate, it’s hard to believe Ponta will even run—he may simply be boosting his public profile to increase his consultancy fees.

If Elena Lasconi (USR) drops out in favor of Nicușor Dan (Bucharest’s mayor), can he—without a party behind him—secure a place in the runoff? Could he attract enough votes from PSD, which will ultimately decide the outcome of a second-round matchup against Georgescu? And given his poor record in managing Bucharest, is Nicușor Dan even suited to lead an entire country?

With three and a half months to go before the first round, there are far more questions than answers. The PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition is currently backing a candidate out of step with the times—Crin Antonescu. Some view his candidacy as temporary, with the possibility of a last-minute replacement, but no one knows who that replacement might be.

Adding to the uncertainty, Romania’s so-called sovereignists seem emboldened by the conservative counter-revolution in the U.S. and the rise of right-wing populism in the EU. Romania appears to be heading into an unprecedented political deadlock, with no honorable way out in sight. The PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition continues working—unintentionally—for Călin Georgescu and the populist-anarchist movement he represents.