How the Russian invasion changed Romania’s security. America is back in Europe, Transnistria may become the litmus test for Bucharest

A year after the start of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Western analyses point to a war of attrition years in the making. The decisions of the Kremlin dictator, the moral author of the massacres in Ukraine, have changed Europe’s security geometry for decades. On the brink of war, Romania is preparing for the toughest test in recent history: a possible, even probable, military crisis provoked by Russia in Transnistria.

In the long term, the biggest strategic change in the region caused by the Russian invasion is America’s return to Europe. The US is the main supplier of arms, ammunition and intelligence to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, and Washington has consistently set the tone for supporting Kiev.

What’s more, the US has made rapid strides in the past year to defend NATO states on its eastern flank, including Romania. The US government is now working on a strategy for the Black Sea, which will change the region’s chessboard for decades to come. Basically, Putin has unwittingly slowed the total shift of US attention to China and Southeast Asia and has quickly put Eastern Europe back on Washington’s agenda.

For Romania, this development is a win-win. Reality shows that the strongest security guarantee for Bucharest is the US.

The major issue for Romania, however, is the security of the Republic of Moldova and the situation in the separatist region of Transnistria, now controlled by the Kremlin. However, the data show that this problem is now worsening. Russia is issuing direct warnings, Ukraine is providing concrete information about the Kremlin’s plans, US analysts are warning that Moscow is preparing a false flag operation in Transnistria.

A military crisis in Transnistria will be Romania’s toughest test yet. What will Bucharest do? Will it militarily assist the pro-European government in Chisinau, risking direct conflict with Russia? Will it hesitate to jump to its aid, giving water to the mill to those who accuse Romania of passivity? Will it ask for NATO support for a country that is not a member of the Alliance? Any decision at such a critical moment will have major consequences for the future of Romania, but also for Moldova.

However, a possible conflict in Transnistria will have a major impact on the population, both in Moldova and in Romania. We will then see whether the strongly pro-Ukrainian attitude of the Romanian population will remain unchanged or, on the contrary, people will feel threatened and put pressure for a rapid end to any hostilities. And we will also see whether moving the conflict within walking distance of Bucharest will result in significant migration.

Here, in brief, are some of the clarifications and radical changes brought about by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The EU quickly recovered from its weak start and showed a unity that was hard to anticipate. France and Germany have been reluctant to accept the new status quo in Europe after the Russian invasion, initially giving the impression of refusing to see reality. Under immense public pressure, however, the two countries bounced back and put the EU on the right track: massive sanctions draining the Russian economy, and significant military aid to Ukraine. And above all, the EU has gained enormously on a symbolic level. The Union practically reinvented itself after the Ukrainians’ admirable jerk showed that Europe is worth fighting for with a gun in hand.

Romania was quick to position itself on the right side of history but constantly hesitates to take military decisions. Since the first day of the war, Romania – especially through the admirable efforts of its citizens – has helped Ukrainian refugees, tens of thousands of mothers with children who fled the war. The state reacted somewhat more reluctantly, as usual. But the state has played a role in the military support for Ukraine: it exists, but it is kept secret for reasons of protection of access routes, of the military involved, of support for Moldova. Only time will tell whether this tactic of discretion was correct or not.

The major Romanian parties have shown political maturity in the crisis. If President Iohannis has any merit in his 8 years in office, it is that he has kept Romania on the right track, to the best of his ability. If we look at counter-examples in the region (Bulgaria, Hungary, even the president of Croatia), we understand that the pro-Western position is never 100% secure in our troubled region. It must be maintained, often at the cost of significant political losses. Iohannis has held the right line, as have the PNL, PSD and UDMR. USR and PMP, for their part, have totally banked on pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian positioning and have constantly put pressure on the state to act more firmly and quickly.

In contrast, the far-right party AUR has bet the opposite: ultra-nationalist discourse, preachings taken from the Kremlin, almost openly anti-Ukrainian. George Simion’s party has captured that part of the public which, as the latest Eurobarometer shows, rejects support for Ukraine.

Viktor Orban’s Hungary has chosen to side with Russia. The wrong choice. It was also on the wrong side of history in the two world wars that marked the last century. Orban’s Hungary is Putin’s only ally in the EU and NATO, and makes a sorry figure in the region. It’s a country that’s betting everything on Russia because it’s hoping for a redrawing of its borders. Historical revisionism is evident in Budapest’s every move, and neighbors are aware of the danger posed by the Orban administration. Sooner or later, the adventure Viktor Orban is dragging his country into will end badly.

Bulgaria is devastated by Russian propaganda, corruption and the politicians’ inability to understand the historical stakes of this moment. It has destroyed its reformist government led by Kiril Petkov, it has become a dysfunctional state, unable to elect a stable, pro-Western government. As it looks now, Bulgaria will continue to ballet between Russia and the West, always on the edge.

Poland is the big political winner in the region. From being a pariah in Europe on the grounds of rule of law violations, Warsaw has transformed itself into a real initiative leader in support of Ukraine and has scored massively on image. Poland has literally beaten Germany and France to the punch, asking them to quickly send the necessary arms to Ukraine when Scholz and Macron hesitated. Poland set its own example: it immediately delivered huge quantities of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. With an extremely strong link to the US, Poland will undoubtedly be America’s main bridgehead in Eastern Europe.

24 February 2022 was the beginning of a new reality for our part of the continent. For Romanians, Bulgarians and French, the war has brought inconveniences such as higher prices for some products or a few degrees lower in their homes. Incomparably less than the indescribable suffering of the Ukrainians: tens of thousands of families destroyed, towns razed to the ground, an economy destroyed.

24 February 2023 is just a midway point in a war that will be with us for a long time to come. And we have to get used to the thought that the Kremlin dictator could topple a new piece of dominoes – this time in Moldova. That will be the critical moment for Romania.

Translated by Ovidiu Harfas