Major crisis of confidence in Romanian politicians. How did Iohannis drop to 15% approval rating, and Ciolacu leading the pack of losers? 

A survey conducted by Avangarde on behalf of the PSD and published on Tuesday, August 2, indicates a major crisis of confidence in the entire Romanian political class. Voters have sanctioned the leaders of the major parties and the President of the Republic in such a high proportion that it should give them serious pause for thought. 

How did President Klaus Iohannis reach a historic low of 15% approval? Only former president Traian Băsescu had such a low score after the pensions and salaries cuts during the 2010 economic crisis, but then the collapse was explained by a series of austerity measures that affected large sections of the population. 

President Iohannis also went through two years of pandemic crisis, but it was not the quarantines or the closure of economic activities that dragged him down so much, but rather the lack of results after seven years in office and the deception of voters’ expectations. However much he tries to justify the PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition by invoking the need for stability, the President is paying the price today for betraying those who voted for him again in 2020, in particular for his anti-PSD and pro-justice speeches, themes that were subsequently abandoned with utmost cynicism. 

The most difficult thing for Klaus Iohannis is that he has nothing to show for after seven years as president. What does he leave behind, apart from his image as a golf-playing president? What are his greatest achievements? What has he done besides stiff-faced photos and artfully recited statements from the teleprompter once in a blue moon? 

How can you dream of being the head of NATO with such a negative image in your own country? Who is going to take you seriously abroad when you finish your second mandate on your knees, with the ambition to leave behind an „educated Romania” but which, unfortunately, is led by a Prime Minister accused of plagiarism and a garrison of dunces placed in key positions in the state. 

Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă governs Romania with an 18% approval rating. That seems a lot for a politician who can barely string two words together, but an alarmingly low figure for someone who claims to be the legitimate head of a government and, what’s more, a potential candidate for Romania’s presidency in 2024. 

Note that Prime Minister Ciucă is about five percent below his own party in the Avangarde poll, which is polling at 23%. In other words, some PNL supporters reject him, not just his political opponents. This is what an artificial leader looks like, invented in the laboratories at the Presidential Palace and kept alive by the propaganda machines of the big TV trusts, lavishly fed from the public purse. 

How will such a weak prime minister get the country through the economic hell that is on the horizon? What legitimacy does a prime minister with such a weak support base among the population have to lead the country? How can Nicolae Ciucă make crucial, hard decisions, if it comes to that? A party leader who has hit rock bottom will be tempted to reject unpopular but necessary measures and govern the country with an eye on the polls. A disaster in a crisis, when every state needs legitimate, strong and courageous leaders.  

We are slowly getting to the chief of the losers, the strongest of the weak. With a staggering 24% confidence, the PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu leads by a wide margin in a poll commissioned by his own party. To put it another way: almost eight out of ten Romanians don’t give a damn about him. 

But let us give to Caesar what is Caesar’s: in the land of the blind, the blind man is master. How can you not grow wings when you’re the least hated politician in a sea of losers? What does it matter if you come out on the losing end as long as you’re leading the pack of losers? 

It is no wonder, then, that Marcel Ciolacu is perceived not only in public but also in the coalition as the de facto head of government. Those who have a problem to solve turn to the PSD leader, and Ciolacu acts like one. But even he, perched on the highest rung of the incapables’ podium, has little reason to rejoice. On the contrary. 

Similar to the Liberals, but in a significantly higher proportion, the PSD members do not trust their own boss. Ciolacu fell about 12 percentage points below the PSD as a party, which is polling at about 37 percent. Nor has he delivered anything significant to hope for better percentages in the polls. 

Despite such a modest political legacy, Ciolacu should, in theory, become Romania’s prime minister sometime in May next year, after the country will have emerged from a terrible winter, perhaps the worst that Europe has seen in decades. He will be the politician called upon to ride out the storm, if the social-democrats do not leave the government in the meantime to avoid being swept away by the wave of inevitable social discontent that everyone fears they will not escape. 

 Let’s say that it is normal for the public to sanction those in power after two years of pandemics, with crises upon crises superimposed by war, with galloping inflation that has deteriorated living standards everywhere in Europe, not just in our country. According to Eurostat data, Romania has seen the highest increases in the prices of goods. Poor governance is one explanation, the rest is due to external factors. 

The crisis of confidence in the leaders in power is therefore somewhat explainable, although Romania has never had such a poor political elite. What is really worrying is the lack of perspective. The opposition parties and their leaders have even lower approval ratings, at or below ten percent. Neither the USR, nor the AUR or other parties are able to capitalize on the mistakes of the government, the poor quality of the coalition leaders and convince the public that they represent an alternative to the current power. 

According to the Avangarde poll, only 38% of respondents indicated a party when asked „if elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for?”. In other words, 62%, i.e. a large majority of the Romanian population, reject outright the current political offer, be it the ruling party or the opposition. Distrust in the system has reached crisis levels. 

The chronic lack of trust in the political leaders and the current party system does not bode well. At a time of major economic crisis, when inflation will bite even deeper into purchasing power amid the general state of irritation amplified by the war in Ukraine, all it takes is one spark and the powder keg risks exploding into a chain of social explosions. 

As much as the large media trusts strive to cosmeticize reality and falsify the public agenda, people see and think for themselves in a world where information can no longer be controlled as it was before 1989. The state of social discontent is real and growing. This simple truth can even be seen in polls commissioned by the ruling parties. 

Because of the media mirage, Iohannis, Ciolacu and Ciucă no longer see the eight out of ten people who whistle at them from the stands, but only the two stragglers who applaud them anemically. 

PS: In terms of trust in politicians, the Avangarde poll measured Marcel Ciolacu, Nicolae Ciucă, Klau Iohannis and other leaders from the total pool of voters, while the parties’ score comes from a much smaller pool, with only 38 percent indicating a political option. For this reason, it is likely that trust in the leaders is much closer to the party score, even though there is apparently a large difference in the results between the leaders’ and the parties’ scores. 

 Traducere: Ovidiu Harfaș