Romania at a crossroads: Four overlapping crises and Russia’s hybrid war

Romania is facing a perfect storm of crises: a looming security threat following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s new plans for Ukraine and Europe, a self-inflicted budgetary disaster in Bucharest, a deep crisis of trust in politicians and institutions, and the technological disruption of artificial intelligence. Compounding these issues is Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare. In this most challenging moment of the past three decades, Romania has one clear path forward: the ruling parties, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), must recognize—before it is too late—that they need a presidential candidate and a prime minister who can inspire voters and lead with credibility through these overlapping crises.

Security Crisis: The Fallout from Trump’s Foreign Policy Shift

Romania’s security crisis was triggered by the Trump administration’s recent statements. The former U.S. president announced his intention to negotiate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, bypassing Ukraine and aligning with the Kremlin’s terms. Meanwhile, the U.S. Secretary of Defense declared that „harsh strategic realities prevent the United States from focusing primarily on European security.”

Whether one agrees or disagrees with Donald Trump’s approach—and whether Europe bears responsibility for underinvesting in its own defense—these are separate debates. Political scientist Vladimir Tismăneanu has already warned that Trump’s policies could push the most powerful nation in human history toward capitulation. The reality is clear: the U.S. appears to be tolerating Russian revisionism, potentially setting off a domino effect across Europe. Consider, for example, Hungary’s increasingly open territorial ambitions. The American „security umbrella” that has protected Romania since 2004 is now losing its deterrent power. As researcher Marius Ghincea put it, Romania’s „strategic holiday” is over.

Now, Romanian political leaders must urgently redefine the country’s security and defense strategy. Should Romania turn to European partners and the UK to fill the void left by the U.S.? Should it strengthen regional alliances with Poland and possibly the Czech Republic? Does the trilateral partnership with Poland and Turkey still function? Should Romania increase its defense budget, and if so, where will the funding come from?

There are dozens of crucial tactical and strategic decisions to be made—decisions that must be taken by credible, legitimate politicians. Leaving these choices to unseen figures in the intelligence services, as President Klaus Iohannis, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, and former Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă have done out of complacency and incompetence, would be a grave mistake. Major decisions must be owned and explained by elected officials, or else they will lack legitimacy.

The Crisis of Trust in Politics

This failure of leadership has fueled Romania’s deep crisis of trust in politicians and institutions. Many critical government decisions—such as harsh pandemic measures or military aid to Ukraine—were taken in secret, without transparency or public explanation. Citizens were left in the dark, treated with arrogance by their leaders. In response, voters lashed out by supporting a candidate with clear psychological issues—one who believes Pepsi contains nanobots and the moon landing was a conspiracy.

A study by sociologist Barbu Mateescu, conducted for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, confirms this trend: parliamentary elections have failed to restore legitimacy to the political class, which remains deeply distrusted. The upcoming presidential elections will be driven by a desire for punishment or radical change.

Interim president Ilie Bolojan, who made a tangible impact in local administration, has been emphasizing for two months the need to rebuild trust in politicians through accountability and sound policy. His message is aimed at Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, whose resignation is essential if public trust in government institutions is to be restored—just as the departure of Klaus Iohannis was necessary to start clearing the political chaos.

The Budgetary Disaster: A Self-Inflicted Crisis

Romania’s budgetary crisis stems from the same reckless leadership. With President Iohannis’s complicity, PSD-PNL governments under Ciolacu and Ciucă drove the deficit to a staggering 9% of GDP, fueled by electoral spending sprees. At the same time, Romania has severely mismanaged its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR)—its primary source of EU investment funding. The country risks losing over €10 billion from the program, having drawn only €9 billion out of a possible €28 billion, with just 18 months left to utilize the remaining funds.

Instead of taking responsibility, Marcel Ciolacu is now threatening his ministers with dismissals if they fail to meet the PNRR milestones—when, in reality, he is the one to blame. He benefited from the 2023-2024 election-driven spending spree and continues to block even minor reforms, despite repeated warnings from financial markets and international partners that failure to act will turn the budget crisis into a full-blown economic catastrophe.

The AI Revolution: Romania’s Missed Opportunity

The world is undergoing a technological revolution driven by artificial intelligence. Some countries see this as an opportunity—especially economic powerhouses and tech hubs. For laggards like Romania, however, it risks becoming another crisis. While the European Commission is launching major initiatives to align with global AI trends, Romania remains absent from the conversation—despite having significant potential. The country boasts creative talent (as evidenced by the numerous startups seeking funding in the U.S. and UK) and ample energy resources that could support AI “mega-factories.” Yet, Romania lacks a strategic brain—someone who can formulate and execute a national AI strategy.

Russia’s Hybrid War in Romania

Russia’s interference in Romania’s 2024 elections has now been confirmed by external intelligence partners. Two allied countries have independently verified Moscow’s involvement in supporting Călin Georgescu’s presidential campaign.

We see Russian narratives being spread by politicians like Georgescu, by figures fully aware of their actions—such as Archbishop Teodosie and businessman-turned-fugitive Sebastian Ghiță—and by unwitting “useful idiots” in the media, academia, the Romanian Orthodox Church, and the education system.

Who is managing the state’s response to this hybrid warfare? We know from neighboring countries how easily such operations can destabilize a nation in ways favorable to the Kremlin.

Who Will Take the Helm?

A genuine, responsible response from PSD and PNL is Romania’s last chance to prevent disaster. What is clear at this moment is that neither Crin Antonescu nor Marcel Ciolacu possesses the qualities necessary to navigate Romania through these geopolitical and economic storms. Neither has left behind a single major project of note. Neither inspires public trust beyond that of a neighborhood association manager in Bucharest’s Colentina district. Neither has meaningful international recognition.

It is time for fresh, credible faces at the helm of the Romanian state. Without them, the country’s two dominant political parties risk being swept away by the rising wave of electoral anger and protest votes.