Romania’s major stakes at the extraordinary NATO summit: the creation of a security hub in the Black Sea and a massive increase of NATO’s permanent presence

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned the Black Sea into the planet’s hottest spot in 2022. Ever since the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, Romania has been warning its NATO and EU partners that they need to recalibrate their stance in the region. Romania now has a real opportunity to provoke a repositioning of NATO and, as a logical consequence, to attract more troops and permanent military equipment to its territory to provide real protection.

In fact, these are Romania’s two big stakes at Thursday’s NATO summit in Brussels, an extraordinary summit attended by President Joe Biden:

• preparing a significant change in NATO’s defense posture in the Black Sea, to be finalized at the June summit in Madrid. The new posture would make the Black Sea and its surrounding states a key point for the defense posture of allied countries.
• a decision to send more troops and permanent military equipment to Romania

Why a change in posture is important. President Iohannis has called obsessively over the past year in public speeches, and perhaps in discussions with EU leaders, for „balancing” defense on NATO’s eastern flank. In translation, this concept means that NATO should allocate a similar number of troops and military equipment to both the northern countries (Poland and the Baltics) and the south, i.e. the Black Sea area (Romania, possibly Bulgaria and Hungary, if they want it).

President Iohannis’ frequent, almost daily public outbursts on the subject were prompted by Bucharest’s exasperation at the obvious „imbalance” of recent years when the bulk of NATO allies’ troops and equipment went to the northern part of the eastern flank. The reasons are objective (the extreme fragility of the three Baltic States in the face of Russia, control of transport routes in the Baltic Sea), but also subjective (Poland’s superior negotiating capacity, more influential and due to defense spending that is significantly higher than Romania’s).

This is exactly what Bucharest’s primary stake in NATO is: to bring about a change in the alliance’s strategy in the Black Sea. The change of stance is the necessary foundation for subsequent political and military decisions. Without rethinking the concept of NATO’s posture on the Eastern flank, it is difficult to ask for an additional military presence in Romania.

This brings us to Romania’s second stake: increasing the number of NATO troops on the national territory and military capabilities, but also making them permanent. A first step has been taken: a month ago Secretary Jens Stoltenberg announced the creation of a French-led NATO working group in Romania. That’s about 1,000 foreign troops in Romania, in addition to the nearly 2,000 US troops who come on a rotational basis.

But to ensure Romania’s security in the face of Russia’s aggressive posture is too little. Romania needs to secure a stronger commitment from its allies, first in Brussels and finally in Madrid in June. To make sure that it deters any possible Russian attack, Romania needs far more troops, but also permanently positioned military equipment.

This is where Romania’s negotiating skills will come into play. This is probably one of the most difficult diplomatic and political battles of the last decade because Romania’s very security is at stake. This is where I would like to see the military institutions engaged, not in the domestic quarters where they are trying, under the cover of the Russian threat, to push their agenda and gain more and more power and influence.

Romania has strengths in the diplomatic struggle. It is a reliable NATO ally: it has sent troops where needed, it has steadily increased defense spending, Iohannis announced quickly after the invasion began that Romania was increasing its security budget from 2% of GDP to 2.5%, and it has generally provided security in the region. Moreover, compared to Hungary or Bulgaria, both politically and/or economically dependent on Russia, Romania is truly a pillar of NATO stability in the region.

The lack of a clear commitment that NATO allies will send troops and robust military capabilities to our country on a permanent basis would be a failure for Romania. And it would perpetuate the chronic instability in the Black Sea, now dominated by Russian military strength. But public signals in recent weeks give cause for optimism: the tide of opinion in NATO is turning fast.