Suspension of Visa Waiver for Romania: political punishment or technical delay?

The suspension of the Visa Waiver program in Romania’s case is currently being presented—both by the American side and the authorities in Bucharest—as a decision motivated by the new US migration policy, as merely a program review, essentially a technicality. Romanian tourists were supposed to be able to enter the US without a visa starting at the end of March. The decision had been announced earlier this year, in the final days of the Biden administration. Romania’s entry into the Visa Waiver program had been one of the key goals championed by US Ambassador to Bucharest Kathleen Kavalec—almost a personal project.

Now, the same embassy finds itself in the awkward position, under the new Trump administration, of posting warnings on Facebook to Romanian citizens traveling illegally to the US that they risk deportation and may never be allowed to return. Similar messages were posted by the US Embassy in Bulgaria, suggesting that discouraging illegal migration is a coordinated communication strategy dictated from Washington. But it’s hard to believe the suspension of the program is purely technical.

It is very likely that the decision also represents a political sanction against Romania, due to the cancellation of the presidential elections and, especially, due to the disqualification of the so-called “sovereigntist” candidate Călin Georgescu—who was openly supported by Elon Musk through dozens of posts on the X platform (formerly Twitter).

Georgescu clearly enjoyed the backing of the new Trump administration, as well as support from Russia. Perhaps for the first time in history, the two great powers are viewing Europe more as a competitor that needs to be crushed. As such, Trump and Putin share a common interest: weakening Europe from within. Experts consulted by G4Media.ro elaborated on this new geopolitical reality in the documentary film “How the Russians and Americans Play with Elections in Europe / Musk and Putin’s Man in Romania.”

US Vice President JD Vance (a leading Republican figure and part of the Trump administration) launched an ideological offensive against Europe during the Munich Security Conference held between February 14–16, where he criticized the EU for allegedly failing to uphold shared democratic values, such as freedom of expression. At the same event, Romania was cited as an example of a dysfunctional democracy due to the cancellation of its elections, justified by claims of manipulation on TikTok.

However, JD Vance didn’t express these criticisms out of a desire to help a strategic partner, but rather to expose and deepen the cracks in the European project. For the same reason, Elon Musk publicly supported the far-right in Germany, which went on to achieve a historic election result.

The Romanian state—despite being weak and semi-fragmented—somehow found the resources to block Georgescu’s candidacy at the last moment. This decision was bound to have political consequences. The Trump administration decided to suspend Romania’s participation in the Visa Waiver program just days after the US Embassy in Bucharest unexpectedly reposted on X a now-famous quote from JD Vance in which he harshly criticized Romania’s canceled elections. In hindsight, this appears to have been laying the groundwork for a political sanction—which followed three days later. Georgescu had already warned, immediately after leaving the Prosecutor’s Office, that sanctions from Washington were coming, indicating he clearly had communication channels with the Trump administration.

America’s withdrawal from Europe is only a matter of time. The Trump administration would like the US to end its spending on Europe’s defense as quickly as possible—something also suggested by Signal messages between US officials that were mistakenly obtained by a journalist from The Atlantic. In one such conversation, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (a conservative political commentator and Trump ally) condemned Europe for “freeloading” on the US, calling the situation “pathetic.”

European leaders, by contrast, would like to negotiate a multi-year transition period to build their own defense systems. It’s hard to believe the Americans will give them that time, having no real interest in doing so—quite the opposite. On the other hand, we don’t know what the peace negotiations with Russia over the Ukraine war look like, or how new spheres of influence are being divided, as the Europeans have been left out of the talks.

If the US does eventually withdraw from Europe, a dangerous security vacuum will emerge. The first to try and exploit it will be the Russians. The head of Germany’s armed forces, General Carsten Breuer, has already warned that Putin is preparing “for a major war,” citing the massive stockpiling of weapons observed in recent weeks. He added that intelligence services are witnessing a “massive rearmament in Russia,” with armaments being “massively stored in large-scale depots.” “Putin is planning big things for the West,” Breuer said, noting the creation of new military districts in places like Saint Petersburg.

Western diplomats fear that, amid a potential security vacuum in Europe, Russia will test NATO’s effectiveness—to prove that Article 5 no longer works. If that „worst-case scenario” unfolds in one of the Baltic states, Bulgaria, or Romania, then anything could be possible in Europe’s highly uncertain future.