The key to a pivotal election for the entire EU: How can the course of accession negotiations with Turkey change if Erdogan is defeated in Sunday’s presidential election?

The more than two-decade story of Turkey’s EU accession negotiations may change course with the presidential elections of May 14. That’s only if opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu defeats Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the authoritarian leader who has been in power for the past 20 years in the country on the Bosphorus. But even then, Turkey’s European path will face obstacles.

The last top-level meeting between EU and Turkish leaders took place more than two years ago, on April the 6th 2021. At that time, European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara.

„The rule of law and respect for fundamental rights are core values of the EU. We shared with President Erdogan our deep concern about the latest developments in Turkey in this regard, in particular regarding freedom of expression and the targeting of political parties and the media. The promotion of women’s rights and Turkey’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention have raised serious concerns in Europe”, said EU leader Charles Michel after his meeting with the Turkish Head of State.
On the other hand, said Charles Michel, the European Union is by far Turkey’s largest trading partner and the EU has a strategic interest in developing a cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship with Turkey.

However, negotiations with Turkey have become increasingly difficult over the past decade due to a democratic decline in this key Black Sea security state, and European leaders’ accusations against the Erdogan regime have grown more serious:

„The rule of law and fundamental rights remain a major concern. The targeting of political parties and the media and other recent decisions represent a major setback for human rights and run counter to Turkey’s obligations to respect democracy, the rule of law, and women’s rights. Dialogue on these issues remains an integral part of the EU-Turkey relationship,” members of the European Council echoed at a meeting in 2021.

EU-Turkey negotiation history

• Turkey was granted candidate status following the European Council meeting in Helsinki in December 1999.
• Accession negotiations were launched on 3 October 2005 at an intergovernmental conference, when the Council also agreed on a framework for negotiations with Turkey.
• The last meeting of the Accession Conference at the ministerial level with Turkey took place on 30 June 2016. The conference opened negotiations on Chapter 33, financial and budgetary provisions. The 54th meeting of the EU-Turkey Association Council was held in Brussels on 15 March 2019. It reviewed the state of play of EU-Turkey bilateral relations (source: European Council).

The chapters that cannot be closed after 20 years of EU-Turkey negotiations are now campaign issues in the presidential elections in the country of nearly 85 million people: the rule of law, freedom of the press, fundamental women’s rights, Syrian migrants, Cyprus or the tense relationship in the Eastern Mediterranean.

But how many of these chapters can be closed even with Kemal Kilicdaroglu at the helm, and what will Turkey’s European future look like with Erdogan gone?

The leader of the main opposition party and presidential candidate, Kemalist Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, said in late April that his main goal, if elected, would be to make Turkey a member of the European Union, adding that the union should share the burden of refugees in Turkey, the Turkish edition of Voice of America reported, as quoted by the Stockholm Center for Freedom.

„Our main goal is to join the European Union. Of course, we want to be part of the civilized world,” Kılıçdaroğlu said, adding that if elected, he would do his best to advance Turkey’s stalled accession process.

The possible election of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu could help improve Turkish-European relations, but could also create problems, writes former EU ambassador to Turkey Marc Pierini in an op-ed for Le Monde.

In the same text, Pierini also asks whether „European leaders are prepared to face the consequences of a possible transition of power in Turkey?”.

„The tangible impact of such a change of tone would be the resumption of a multifaceted dialogue, currently at a standstill, on a wide range of topics: foreign policy, trade (especially around the Customs Union) and financial relations, visas, migration, environmental issues, strategic autonomy, the European Political Community and, for good measure, the defense industry. Clearly, respect and trust would be restored,” the former EU ambassador to Turkey writes.
Also Pierini, in an analysis for the think-tank Carnegie Europe, is not so optimistic about the EU-Turkey relationship in the scenario of Erdogan’s ouster, although he paints a favorable picture.

„Should the opposition candidate win, Western leaders will have to face massive consequences. Ankara will act swiftly to normalize its relationship with NATO. But some of the current differences, for example over Cyprus and Syria, will not go away. On the positive side, the rule of law will be re-established and relations with the EU will be improved – though not weakened,” says the analysis published on 13 April.

Cyprus would remain a hot topic:

• „Another big bone of contention, especially with the EU, would be Cyprus. Whether or not Turkey’s new leadership would favor the current option of a two-state solution, any discussion of a comprehensive Cyprus settlement would remain difficult. Issues such as the status of the Turkish-speaking community, the exploitation of underwater resources, and the consequences of Turkey’s non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus would remain very difficult to resolve.”

Overall, foreign policy differences would not disappear with the election of Kılıçdaroğlu, the Carnegie Europe analysis explains.

On the other hand, the analysis also highlights the positive aspects:

By far the most important change will be related to security and defense.

A new Turkish leadership will return to a more constructive role within NATO.
Outside the security field, another major improvement would be the gradual return to a rule of law architecture closer to Western standards: a number of political prisoners would be released without delay; reforms would be launched in the judiciary, media, and civil society; and a return to a parliamentary system would be initiated.
With the EU, specifically, a political dialogue would be relaunched and the whole relationship reviewed.
As for the scenario of another Erdogan victory, things are simple in Pierini’s view:

• „While Turkish leaders may be able to reduce some of his divisive rhetoric, tensions over Turkey’s foreign policy orientation and the degradation of democratic freedoms will remain obstacles to significant improvements. Western partners should manage continued disruptions.”

What if Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins the election?

An analysis by Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies asks „What should the European Union do if the opposition wins in Turkey?”.

„The EU and its member states should be prepared to match these efforts with concrete proposals to help the new government consolidate its reforms. A democratic, predictable and pro-Western government in Turkey is clearly an advantage for the EU,” says the analysis, which points out that „not all problems will magically disappear with an opposition victory. There will still be many disagreements over Cyprus, the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria. Given existing dependencies, Turkey’s relations with Russia will not change overnight”.
And a happy scenario for EU-Turkey negotiations would only be possible, according to the analysis, if „all these promises are based on an electoral victory, a democratic transition of power and a stable coalition that will immediately implement domestic reforms while restoring ties with the West”.

Any missing piece of this hypothetical gearing would delay Turkey’s EU accession process, probably for many more years to come.