What Trump’s victory means for Romania

Alongside Central and Eastern European countries, Romania could receive more attention from the United States during Trump’s second term, just as it did during his first. However, the news is only partially favorable. First, Trump views Europe as a commercial rival that must be weakened in relation to America. He has already pursued this approach as U.S. president, either by imposing tariffs on European goods or by encouraging sovereigntist movements that undermine EU unity.

Throughout Trump’s first term, Romania skillfully avoided getting caught in the crossfire, engaging in diplomatic balancing between Washington and Brussels. On one hand, Romania’s primary interest lies in cultivating strong relations with its strategic partner, on whom it depends foremost for national security, especially in the context of Russian aggression in Ukraine. For this reason, it was among the first countries to comply almost immediately with Trump’s demand to increase its NATO contribution to 2.5% of GDP.

Romania’s military spending has predominantly focused on acquiring American military equipment. This investment, alongside its loyalty to its strategic partner, is an essential asset Romania could leverage during Trump’s second term. However, Trump’s stance on the war in Ukraine is currently ambiguous. During his campaign, he stated only that he would end the war, but precisely how he intends to achieve this remains unknown. Will he halt military aid to Ukraine? Will he negotiate new spheres of influence with Russia? Where would Romania stand if Trump and Putin were to redraw Europe’s borders in a new negotiation?

These are legitimate concerns, but it’s worth noting that Romania has firmly anchored itself in American policy over the past two decades, particularly since joining NATO in 2004. Romania has proven itself as a loyal partner in Iraq and Afghanistan, contributing troops alongside the Americans. It’s hard to imagine that this privileged relationship would change. In recent years, Romanian governments have consistently demonstrated an unequivocal pro-American stance. Public opinion polls show that America is seen as Romania’s primary ally and friend.

The only significant question is whether Romania will finally be admitted to the Visa Waiver Program by the end of the year, or if the new Trump administration will delay a decision. Currently, it’s unclear how Trump’s anti-immigration policies will impact the visa waiver decision for a country with a high potential for emigration, similar to what happened after Romania joined the EU. According to preliminary information obtained by G4Media.ro, there is no indication at this time that Trump’s team will alter U.S. policy on lifting visa requirements as soon as possible. On the contrary, diplomatic sources suggest that the current administration will make an announcement about lifting visas by January 20, the end of its mandate.

Beyond this, Trump’s administration is expected to engage with Romania in a transactional manner, much like during his first term. Remember the Broidy-Circinus affair, involving contracts worth billions of euros that one of Trump’s close associates sought to secure in Romania? Or Liviu Dragnea’s visit to Trump’s inauguration ceremony in January 2017, facilitated by the same Broidy, which later became part of a DNA investigation?

Adrian Zuckerman, the former U.S. Ambassador to Romania during Trump’s first term, predicted a highly optimistic outlook as early as July: “If the Trump administration returns, I believe things will be very, very good. I expect significant economic growth, military expansion, and prosperity—not just for Romania, but also for Eastern Europe and all of Europe.” Perhaps not for all of Europe, but this transactional, purely business-focused approach will likely define Romania’s relationship with the new Trump administration.

The less favorable news pertains to ideological implications. As mentioned earlier, Donald Trump has encouraged sovereigntist movements in Europe. He is an idol for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, and in Romania, George Simion (leader of Romania’s right-wing nationalist AUR party) quickly celebrated: “This is a victory for patriots against globalists. I expect the Marxist, woke ideology to be stopped.” Thus, Trump is a champion for sovereigntists and conservatives alike. This complicates things in a country like Romania, where Russian narratives on issues like family, religion, and LGBT rights often align with conservative Republican narratives.

From tomorrow, these “useful idiots” of Moscow will become ardent pro-Americans, just like Simion and others like him. This will significantly deepen ideological confusion and help Russia perfectly disguise its agents of influence as pro-Americans. Trump’s support for sovereigntist movements is not good news for Romania. These forces are generally represented by extremist, anti-European, and anti-Western parties, like AUR in Romania or FIDESZ in Hungary. Orbán has already become Russia’s Trojan horse in the EU and now also serves as Trump’s apostle in Europe. In short, Trump’s victory also means the “normalization” of these figures.

A second Trump victory would further embolden far-right populist parties and movements, which embrace the same illiberal policies that Trump and his “Make America Great Again” movement have championed for years. European centrist forces have already begun relying on far-right support to gain or maintain power in many countries: far-right parties, according to Politico.eu, “have entered coalition governments in seven EU countries: Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia.”

In Sweden, the current government depends on far-right support; and France’s new center-right government will only govern with the tacit support of the RN (Rassemblement National). His victory would further boost these far-right parties and normalize their influence, as noted by Corriere della Sera in a pre-election analysis.

Another unresolved issue—uncertain whether positive or negative for Romania—is the relationship with China. Romania had hoped to maintain some bridges, particularly regarding collaboration with Huawei on 5G. However, pressure from the Trump administration during his first term led several European countries to forgo contracts with the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei due to U.S. cybersecurity concerns.

Germany has avoided confrontation over Huawei out of fear that Beijing might retaliate against its auto industry. Joe Biden has been more conciliatory with Europe on Huawei. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen clearly favors a tougher stance on China, but faces resistance from hesitant member states, particularly Germany. An EU official explained, “A little push from another Trump administration would likely help rather than harm her stance.”

In conclusion, the effects of Trump’s victory are difficult to measure in black and white. For parts of Europe, it could spell a minor disaster; for others, it may be a bitter pill that nonetheless brings certain economic and military advantages.