Why Marcel Ciolacu wants to retain transport and finance ministries if he becomes prime minister / How liberals will act 

PSD President Marcel Ciolacu seems to has tested the waters with his public proposal to keep transport and finance after he becomes Prime Minister in May, while leaving the Liberals with justice and investment ministries. Ciolacu praised Cătălin Predoiu for his performance in ridding Romania of the CVM, and Marcel Boloș for unblocking investment projects.

According to the coalition protocol, signed in November 2021, the PSD and PNL should switch the aforementioned ministries, but the liberals have already announced that they want to respect the protocol. That is, justice and investment should go to the PSD, and transport and finance to the PNL, under the threat that if the agreement is not respected, Nicolae Ciucă could remain prime minister.

Ciolacu’s proposal to keep the high-performing ministers after the rotation was publicly supported by the PSD secretary-general, Paul Stănescu.

What the protocol stipulates:

Upon rotation of the Prime Minister, according to the agreed political rotation, the following representatives in the government will also be replaced: the Deputy Prime Minister on the PSD side will be replaced by the Deputy Prime Minister on the PNL side; the Minister of Transport on the PSD side will be replaced by the nominee for this portfolio on the PNL side, and the PSD will take over the Ministry of Investment and European Projects; the Minister of Public Finance on the PSD side will be replaced by the incumbent for this portfolio on the PNL side, and the PSD will take over the management of the Ministry of Justice; the coordinator of the General Secretariat of the Government on the PSD side will be replaced by the PNL representative, and the PSD will take over the coordination of the Prime Minister’s Chancellery.

The social democrats want to keep transport because it is a rich ministry, which contracts hundreds of millions of euros. The liberals want to take it over in May for the same reason, plus others related to electoral logic. In 2024 they will want to cut ribbons at the inauguration of the new sections of highways to be built by then or at various other civil infrastructure projects.

Marcel Ciolacu has every interest in keeping Sorin Grindeanu in charge at the transport department to keep him busy with government issues, not transferring him to the head of the Chamber of Deputies, where he would start to accumulate more political influence by virtue of the position. Grindeanu remains a potential domestic rival for the PSD leader.

As far as finances are concerned, Ciolacu would like to keep the finances in order not to be hindered in his projects as Prime Minister by a liberal minister who, as the 2024 election campaign approaches, could block possible populist initiatives or social measures with electoral purposes but which would not have budgetary coverage. On the other hand, it would be a headache for the PSD to take over the justice ministry without being able to influence anything essential, since the appointments of new chief prosecutors at the General Prosecutor’s Office, DNA, and DIICOT will have already been made by President Iohannis and Minister Predoiu at the end of February.

According to G4Media.ro information, even PNL leader Nicolae Ciucă had advanced at the end of last year inside the party to keep Marcel Boloș at the Ministry of Investment and European Projects (MIPE), but some liberals had told him that either the protocol with the PSD was respected or everything was renegotiated from scratch. Ciucă is said to have retreated, but his behavior indicates a common language with the PSD leader.

The two leaders of the PNL and the PSD seem to be already working in tandem, and Ciolacu could make it a condition for Ciucă to take over as prime minister in May that he will keep Nicolae Ciucă at the head of the PNL. For the PSD leader, Ciucă’s eventual candidacy for the presidential election in 2024 would be the ideal scenario, given that he is a weak and vulnerable candidate, easy to beat. There would be a good chance that the next PSD candidate would enter the second round with the AUR candidate and thus repeat the scenario of 2000, when the „lesser evil” (Iliescu-Vadim) was elected.

A number of the PSD leaders are convinced that the response of the liberals to the social democrats’ offer to keep transport is the action of the prosecutors whereby the party leaders have started to be questioned as witnesses in various cases (Grindeanu in the CFR case and Firea in the 10 August case).

There is no evidence that the prosecutors were mobilized on command, but the PSD-ists are used to seeing in any action of the justice occult maneuvers of power or the hand of the „parallel state”. It is not completely excluded that there is an ounce of truth in the PSD accusations, but for that there needs to be evidence or at least minimal indications that the prosecutors acted on political orders.

This is the political picture of the moment, four months before the rotary. If the tension is so high now, one can easily imagine how the negotiations will evolve as the Ciucă-Ciolacu leadership race approaches. And still, no one has questioned the three ministries held by the RMDSZ: environment, development, and sport. Will all three remain with the Hungarians or will the ministries with large budgets (environment and development) be shared between PNL and PSD? And if so, how? Yet another source of conflict.

In any case, one thing seems clearer at this point: Marcel Ciolacu is preparing intensely to take over as head of government, under the threat that any other option would lead to early elections. Once he enters the Victoria Palace, however, his plans to run for president in 2024, however much smoke he now blows in the public arena, diminish with every day he spends as prime minister.

In a few months’ time, all public attention will shift from the Liberals to the PSD.

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