Why the Ukrainian offensive is not yielding results

The offensive launched by Ukrainian forces two months ago has not achieved the hoped-for results, with Volodymyr Zelensky’s army so far achieving limited success in driving Russian soldiers out of eastern Ukraine, despite significant efforts that have resulted in significant losses of troops and equipment, US officials believe. The situation is all the more delicate for the government in Kiev – backed by Washington and its allies – as the approach of autumn, rain and muddy terrain will complicate Ukrainian attempts to push the Russians out of occupied territory. Why aren’t things working out for the Ukrainians as hoped?

A slow counter-offensive

The Ukrainian forces’ counteroffensive was launched earlier this summer after months of preparation. US and Western allies have trained more than 60,000 troops in NATO tactics that emphasise synchronised attacks between ground combat units, artillery and air forces. The Pentagon has provided dozens of armoured personnel carriers, and other allies have sent tanks and modern equipment. The United States has also sent or pledged tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine.

Western hopes for quick Ukrainian gains were based in part on the experience of last autumn, when Kiev government forces took control of parts of northern Ukraine while Russian troops retreated in disarray.

USA Today wrote that the war, launched as an illegal, unprovoked invasion in February 2022 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, was bloody and costly.

More than 9,300 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and 16,600 wounded, according to the United Nations. Estimates of casualties among Russian and Ukrainian troops vary. Russian casualties totaled about 200,000 troops, 40,000 of whom were killed, U.S. officials estimated this spring. Secret US documents leaked months ago to a website devoted to video game fans indicated about 125,000 casualties among Ukrainian troops, of whom about 17,000 died in fighting.

For Putin, the war was a strategic blunder, the US publication said. Ukrainian determination has dashed the Kremlin leader’s hopes of a quick victory in days or weeks. The fighting revealed shortcomings in the Russian army’s leadership, training and equipment. Instead of dividing NATO, the alliance has added Finland to its ranks and, with it, nearly 1,300 kilometres more to its border with Russia. Sweden is also set to become NATO’s 32nd member.

But to break the deadlock and continue Ukraine’s progress, Western officials say Ukraine will need more counter-offensive help, including advanced fighter jets to clear Russian defences from occupied territory.

That’s because the counteroffensive has so far failed to deliver the results Kiev and Westerners expected. Ukrainian forces have made minimal gains along a roughly 1,000-kilometer front in eastern Ukraine, according to U.S. officials who were not authorized to speak publicly. (In recent days, some potentially significant efforts have been made, however, USA Today noted).

But so far the Ukrainians have not managed to regain much ground. In most places, progress is measured in a few hundred yards, a US official said. That’s not much, given that Russia illegally occupies about 20% of Ukraine’s territory.

One of the places where things are looking better, the source said, was in the western Zaporozhniya province of southeastern Ukraine, where the Kiev government has committed resources and troops, and progress is visible.

Advances there, however, may be marked by periods of pause and setbacks, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukrainian troops have also made gains near Bahmut, the Washington official said. Recall that fighting for the mining town in the northeastern part of Donetsk province, part of Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland and at one time home to about 80,000 people, has lasted for months. Russian forces have been shelling the city with artillery since last May and since August have launched constant waves of infantry attacks, led by mercenaries from the Wagner Group and joined by new recruits and former prison inmates.

The Russians announced their total capture of the city in May this year.

What’s not working?

Kiev’s past successes and Moscow’s military failures, deliveries of new advanced Western weapons and a new batch of Western-trained Ukrainian recruits have made many people very excited – perhaps too excited – about what Ukraine’s counter-offensive could achieve. But that’s not how things have turned out at all.

Commenting on the Ukrainians’ lack of progress, Seth Jones, senior vice president and director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said progress is slow. „It’s early August. The reality is it’s not clear how much (territory) the Ukrainians will be able to take back in a short time frame.”

That’s because the approach of autumn, rain and muddy terrain will complicate the Ukrainians’ attempts to push the Russians from their territory.

Analysts have tried to explain why Ukrainian efforts are slow. Among other things, experts say Russian forces have spent the winter and spring preparing elaborate layers of defenses. Putin’s troops have laid vast minefields as a first line of defense, built barricades and erected tank barriers known as „dragon’s teeth” to force Ukrainian troops into territory they can cover with artillery fire.

Experts say the Russian fortifications in Ukraine are some of the most extensive in Europe since World War II, stretching across the front lines from Herson in the south to the north. For example, Russia has built trenches filled with explosives, so that when Ukrainian soldiers approach, ready to neutralize and clear a Russian position, Putin’s forces can detonate them from a distance.

Ukrainian troops faced „hundreds of minefields,” the US official said. It’s difficult to get through mines safely under the best of circumstances, experts say. By doing so under Russian fire, a significant number of Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded, the official said. Dozens of Western armored vehicles were also destroyed or damaged. US and European officials also said that about 20% of Western equipment was destroyed or damaged in combat in the first weeks of the counteroffensive.

All of this makes Ukraine’s progress gradual and slow, which gives Russia time to re-enforce itself and plant more mines, further impeding Ukrainian movement. „The dilemma for Ukraine is really one of maneuver, because in order to overcome the prepared Russian defensive lines, they have to force the Russians to move,” said Oscar Jonsson, founder of Phronesis Analysis and a researcher at the Swedish Defence University.

Experts have previously also wondered how capable Ukrainian troops would be to maneuver with advanced weapons, such as main battle tanks, and whether they could overcome supply and logistics challenges.

The slow progress is neither a surprise nor an indictment of Ukrainian resolve or Western tactics, Seth Jones said. Lack of air support for Ukrainian ground troops has hampered their counter-offensive, the expert explained.

No US-led attack would involve just one component of Pentagon ground, air and sea forces, Jones said. However, the Ukrainians have limited themselves to attacking almost exclusively on the ground. Ukrainian pilots use a relatively small number of Soviet-era aircraft, which are outmatched by Russia’s modern fighter jets and air defenses. The Russians’ successful use of attack helicopters has also had a decisive influence on the battlefield.

„I don’t want to dismiss the possibility of a breakthrough in a particular area,” Jones said. But frankly, it’s going to be very difficult to retake the 19% or 20% of Ukraine’s territory that Russia occupies.

Experts believe that one of the reasons Ukraine’s offensive isn’t working is that Kiev and its newly trained forces have largely failed to conduct large-scale combined arms operations – in other words, coordinating troops and all these different weapons, such as armored vehicles and artillery, to get through Russian lines.

What’s next?

Ukraine is currently fighting on three axes – two in the south and one in the east near Bahmut. The recapture of Staromaiorske was a breakthrough along a very critical axis in the Ukrainian push south, where Kiev is trying to reach the Sea of Azov, with the aim of cutting off Russian-controlled territory. The military balance of power has not yet shifted in this region. But the seizure of Staromaiorsk was a sign, at least, that Ukraine could turn things around in this next phase of the counteroffensive.

According to the source quoted by USA Today, the Biden administration is expected to continue supplying Ukraine with hundreds of millions of dollars worth of ammunition, de-mining equipment and air defense every few weeks. Air defense is particularly critical as Putin’s forces continue to strike civilian targets with drones and missiles.

Constant resupply of ammunition is also vital. The Ukrainians have been firing up to 10,000 artillery shells a day at Russian troops. Cluster munitions, shells that scatter smaller explosives, sparked controversy when the administration in Washington approved their inclusion in previous military aid packages. The weapons, banned by more than 100 countries, can leave behind unexploded bombs that can kill or maim civilians. Despite this, the US official said they would continue to be sent to Ukraine.

Using cluster munitions, the Ukrainians have been successful in attacking Russian troop concentrations, a second US official said. Citing recent intelligence reports, the source also said the Ukrainians had managed to break through minefields in some areas, a hopeful sign that could lead to further progress.

On the other hand, Seth Jones said that Ukraine’s military arsenal is missing two items that could accelerate the counter-offensive. Advanced fighter jets, such as F-16s, could provide cover for Ukrainian ground troops. Also, the US military’s Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, has a range of about 300 kilometres and can reach key Russian-operated logistics and command points.

Still, the $44 billion in military aid from Washington to the government in Kiev was a good investment, Jones said. „The US has managed to weaken one of its most important adversaries without losing a single American soldier,” the expert said.

Ukrainian pilots are due to start training on the F-16s, which the US allies have pledged to provide, sometime this month. ATACMS remain on Ukraine’s wish list, but a White House decision to send them is not imminent, the first official was quoted by USA Today as saying. The White House and Pentagon have avoided sending Ukraine sophisticated weapons such as F-16s because of fears that Russia would escalate the war and strike nearby NATO countries, triggering a wider conflict. (The Ukrainian government has offered assurances that it will not use the weapons to attack inside Russia.)

But it’s not out of the question that both fighter jets and ATACMS systems will soon arrive in Ukraine, after various influential leaders in Washington announced their support for such a move. For example, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, a member of the Armed Services Committee, supports sending both weapons systems to reinforce the Kiev government’s forces. „It’s a progressive step that is well justified,” he said.

For its part, Russia has not resolved all its logistical and equipment constraints, especially when it comes to artillery. Troops are suffering from low morale and some are poorly trained. Ukraine can still exploit all this. But, as a Western intelligence official said at a late July briefing, „the ability of the Russians just to grit their teeth and get through should not be underestimated.”

On the other hand, experts say Ukraine’s leaders are aware of the slow progress of the counteroffensive and have now shifted strategies to a more business-as-usual approach, trying to degrade Russian forces and logistics while focusing their operations on three axes of attack. „It’s not so much about killing Russian troops on the front line, it’s more about weakening critical factors like artillery, but also things like command posts, ammunition supplies, electronic warfare systems, air defense systems, things like that,” said Niklas Masuhr, a military analyst at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich.

It’s a cautious and methodical approach, said Federico Borsari, who focuses on transatlantic defense and security at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The strategy helps reduce casualties among Ukrainian troops, but forces Kiev to rely more on artillery. It’s a slow approach by design.

This model has favoured Ukraine’s military in the past, but it does not make it a safe strategy. Russia, again, has learned from past mistakes, and battlefield dynamics have changed since Ukraine recaptured parts of the Kharkov region and forced a Russian withdrawal to Herson last year.

That makes the next phase of Ukraine’s counteroffensive far from certain. „Phase 1 probably failed, but that doesn’t mean (the Ukrainians) can’t win,” said Patrick Bury, a lecturer in security at the University of Bath. They can still win in phase 4 or 3 or 5, even this summer. What it means is that there is less time to do that, the expert added. For the coming of autumn will further complicate the Ukrainians’ mission.

The frontline has not changed substantially since Ukraine forced a Russian withdrawal from Herson in November 2022. If the borders remain largely frozen for more than a year, a decisive victory for both sides will begin to look increasingly unlikely, experts say. That doesn’t yet mean that Ukraine, which is now struggling with its counteroffensive, won’t eventually prevail against Russia.

Sources: USA Today, Vox, New York Times